UFC Fight Night: Expert picks and best bets for Yan vs. Figueiredo

Two former UFC titleholders go head-to-head this weekend as former men’s bantamweight champion Petr Yan takes on former two-time men’s flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo in the main event at UFC Fight Night at Galaxy Arena in Cotai, Macau, on Saturday morning ( 6 a.m. ET on ESPN+, with prelims at 3 a.m. on ESPN+).

Yan, who held the bantamweight belt from July 2020 to March 2021, is ranked No. 5 in ESPN’s divisional rankings. He beat Song Yadong by unanimous decision in March to end a three-fight losing streak.

Figueiredo, ranked No. 7 in ESPN’s bantamweight rankings, is a former two-time flyweight champion who moved up a division in December 2023. He is undefeated since moving up to 135 pounds.

Brett Okamoto spoke to Syndicate MMA coach John Wood to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets he likes on the card.

Editor’s note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.

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Men’s bantamweight: Petr Yan vs. Deiveson Figueiredo

John Wood, Syndicate MMA coach

How Yan wins: Yan is a different level of opponent than Figueiredo has faced in this division. He might get taken down once or twice in this fight but he should be able to get back up. He has to get back up. Apply pressure and eventually, he’ll wear Figueiredo out and should have a chance to put him away. Figueiredo has a flowy style, which Yan should have success against. You must keep moving forward and stick with fundamentals. Sometimes he can be too aggressive, which opens him up to being taken down. So, be mindful of how aggressive he throws his shots.

How Figueiredo wins: Take Yan down and control him. Take him down, beat him in the scrambles, control him and maybe submit him, although I don’t think he will. Be prepared to do that for five rounds and grind out a decision. Turn it into a positional battle. However, he hasn’t historically had the cardio for that. His striking has looked better, but Yan is a far superior striker. I think Figueiredo might stand with Yan for a couple of rounds, but he’s going to learn quickly that’s not a good strategy. His advantage here is jiu-jitsu.

X factor: Cardio. If Figueiredo’s cardio is significantly improved now that he’s not cutting the weight, then we’ll have a hell of a fight on our hands. Figueiredo has to maintain a high pace for five rounds and continue shooting takedowns effectively through all five rounds.

Prediction: Yan to win by third or fourth-round TKO.

Betting analysis

Odds accurate as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.

Parker: Over 4.5 rounds (-175). Figueiredo will have his toughest test to date against Yan. With both fighters coming off decision wins, I expect a long back-and-forth fight for all five rounds. Yan takes his time, downloading information and getting better as the fight goes on. Meanwhile, Figueiredo is more of a strong starter. On the feet, Yan is the better striker, but Figueiredo likely carries more power. Look for Yan to avoid the takedowns early and keep the fight on the feet. Take the over 4.5 rounds, as I don’t see either fighter getting finished here.

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Parker’s best bets on the rest of the card

Strawweight: Yan Xiaonan vs. Tabatha Ricci

Yan to win (-200). Take this line on Yan, before it gets any higher. Yan has fought the best in the division and against the champion, Zhang Weili, she had her share of big moments, including dropping Weili and nearly winning. Against Ricci, Yan will be the stronger fighter and the better striker. As long as she can keep this fight on the feet I expect Yan’s striking to be too accurate for Ricci to avoid.

Welterweight: Song Kenan vs. Muslim Salikhov

Salikhov to win (-185). At -185 odds, I am high on Salikhov here. He will be the better striker and grappler if he can avoid Song’s early punching power. If Song couldn’t finish Ricky Glenn in three rounds, I doubt he would do that against a much better opponent in Salikhov.

Light heavyweight: Volkan Oezdemir vs. Carlos Ulberg

Over 1.5 rounds (-185). This should be a fun fight between two strikers who carry tremendous knockout power. The question is, if Ulberg doesn’t knock out Oezdemir in Round 1, can he keep up the pace and win on the feet for three rounds… I’m not sure. Oezdemir has only been KO’d twice, and the last time was in 2020 against Jiří Procházka in a fight he was winning until he got caught. Oezdemir also has an underrated grappling game that could be a smart strategy against a knockout artist in Ulberg. Ulberg will be of no threat if Oezdemir puts him on his back. I think this fight will go longer than people expect, so it will take over 1.5 rounds.