Historic La Niña threat to Australia showing signs of ‘backing off’

After the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) released its latest weather outlook on Tuesday, an expert believes it is now much less likely millions will cope with the effects of a La Niña event in the second half of 2024.

The terms La Niña and El Nino have been bandied about in recent years after the impact of both caused devastation for many around the country. An El Nino brings dry and hot weather which threatens drought and bushfires, while La Niña’s above-average rainfall often leads to flooding.

If La Niña occurs this year it would mean the country has experienced it four times in five years, which would make it a “historic” weather record.

La Niña looking less likely but rain will ‘persist’ in parts

The Bureau flagged a possible La Niña weather event for later this year in May, saying there was a 50 per cent chance more rainfall than usual would sweep across late winter and spring. Now it’s looking more unlikely the country will experience severe rainfall, with meteorologist Matthew King calling these early predictions “premature.”

“There’s been this kind of discussion over recent months about the possibility of going into another La Nina… the Bureau is kind of backing off that a little bit now,” the professor from the University of Melbourne said. “There was a bit too much hype around the possibility of a La Nina, it’s not something that’s ruled out but it’s not looking super likely.”

Most of the country is set to see a typical range of rainfall but the southwest of the country and areas in the east, such as southern Queensland and inland NSW can expect wetter than usual conditions.

“There’s a heightened chance of wetter than normal conditions over the southwest of Australia, particularly for places like Perth. They are already experiencing quite wet conditions which will persist,” he said.

Why it’s almost always warmer than average now

The BoM has forecast above-normal temperatures throughout the next few months on the continent but “that’s kind of the norm” now.

“The Bureau forecasts above-normal temperatures because the normal or average conditions are from a few decades ago, and essentially the world has warmed,” he said. “Australia has warmed because of our greenhouse gas emissions, it’s always almost warmer than natural temperatures now.”

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