Five Reasons No. 14 BYU Resurges Against No. 21 Arizona State

What a difference four months makes. Just imagine telling yourself back in August that BYU’s November game against Arizona State would be a ranked matchup for the right to play in the Big 12 title game. The no. 21 Sun Devils’ resurgence this season has been one of the great stories of college football, and they are riding high after a huge 24-14 road win over then no. 16 Kansas State. BYU, once again, finds itself on the wrong side of a betting spread, while pundits and fans alike question whether BYU is trending in the wrong direction. I’m not so sure about that. Here are five reasons I think BYU can beat Arizona State on Saturday.

Jake Retzlaff struggled in the last two games, largely due to the immense amount of pressure brought by both Kansas and Utah. Retzlaff, who has been among the worst quarterbacks against the blitz this season, was blitzed on nearly 50% of his drop backs and he has the scars to prove it. The good news for Retzlaff is that Arizona State is 110th nationally in blitz rate this season at just over 25% and 104th in sacks per game. Meanwhile, Retzlaff is the PFF’s 4th highest-graded passer against a standard pass rush this season with a 90.1 grade while averaging over 8 yards per attempt with 14 touchdowns to only 2 interceptions. In addition to a poor pass rush, Arizona State’s defense also ranks 96th in success rate per drop back and have largely relied on turnovers to stop opposing passing attacks. Unless the Sun Devils significantly alter their defensive strategy, Retzlaff will have plenty of opportunities to pick them apart from the pocket.

Arizona State is a solid matchup for the BYU offense. We already discussed BYU’s potential advantages in the pass game while running backs LJ Martin and Hinkley Ropati are averaging a combined 5.9 yards per carry over their last 5 games. In terms of ball control, BYU ranks 8th in the country in percentage of drives that reach scoring position compared to ASU’s 66th. Worried about BYU’s third down and fourth down efficiency? Arizona State’s defense ranks 87th. What about the redzone? BYU is 32nd nationally in red zone scoring percentage to ASU’s 62nd on defense.

I understand that BYU has struggled on offense the last two weeks, but ASU isn’t nearly as exotic on defense as what BYU faced against Utah and BYU likely won’t repeat the comedy of errors that doomed them against Kansas. Following that debacle, I expect the offense to come out angry and look more like the team that led the Big12 in scoring through eight games.

This might sound like a crazy stat, but BYU has only played in five games where the defensive coaching staff (1) knew who the opposing QB would be and (2) had more than one full game of tape to base a game plan off. In those five games, BYU is giving up just 14.8 points per game and a QB rating of 86.3. Both of those would rank top seven nationally over a full season. ASU quarterback Sam Leavitt falls into that category.

Leavitt hasn’t been asked to carry this Sun Devil offense, but he has been incredibly efficient thanks to a heavy dose of short and intermediate throws to leading receiver Jordyn Tyson, who has been a recipient of 35% of targets this season. BYU has done an excellent job limiting their opponents’ no. 1 receiver, holding them to just 4.5 catches, 63.8 yards, and 3 total touchdowns in 7 P4 games. If BYU can contain ASU running back Cam Skattebo, I don’t believe ASU’s passing attack will be enough against a BYU secondary that ranks 4th nationally in pass efficiency defense.

The Big 12 has no shortage of elite running backs and ASU’s Cam Skattebo may be the best of the bunch. Skattebo is already over 1,000 yards for the season with 11 TDs on 5.4 yards per carry. Skattebo is a wrecking ball when he gets into a groove but it is not unstoppable. He has run for over 6.5 yards per carry in 4 games this season, but has also been held under 3.5 yards per carry 3 times, including just 2.9 yards per carry last week against Kansas State after missing the UCF game with a shoulder sprain.

Candidly, BYU’s run defense has been a mixed bag this season, giving up 269 yards to a bad Oklahoma State team but also holding top 30 rush offenses in UCF, Kansas, and Baylor to a combined 297 yards under their season averages. Still, given Skattebo’s recent injury and BYU’s holding Kansas to 2.2 yards per carry, I expect the BYU defense that ranks 17th nationally in EPA per rush to show up Saturday.

ASU is a legitimate top 25 football team and one of the best stories in college football, but if BYU’s record is a fluke, then so is ASU’s. They have one win of over 10 points against a P4 team to BYU’s three and have one win over a bowl eligible team to BYU’s three. Think BYU has been lucky with five defensive/special teams TD’s this season? ASU also has five, including two in a 35-31 win over UCF in Tempe two weeks ago. ASU is certainly riding high after knocking off then 16th ranked Kansas State 24-14 in Manhattan, but scored only 3 points over the final 40 minutes of that game.

My point isn’t to discredit anything about Arizona State’s magical run. I only bring any up any of this to show that these two teams aren’t that different, despite Arizona State being viewed nationally as the best team trending in an opposite direction to BYU. BYU is every bit as good as Arizona State. BYU is not overmatched or spiraling. Both teams are good. Both teams are worthy of a trip to the Big 12 title game. The only difference is that Arizona State hasn’t spent the last six weeks under a national microscope while being called a fraud every time they play a close game.

This is one of the most important regular season football games BYU has ever played, and I believe they will meet the moment. I understand that last week ASU had a huge win and BYU suffered a huge loss, but just like missing a bowl game in agonizing fashion was the best thing for the program in 2023, a loss can be the best thing to reset the BYU football program now.

My biggest reason for confidence in this game is Jay Hill and the defense. When Hill has had film to prepare, the defense has yet to give up more than 19 points to a P4 opponent. Arizona State has a solid offense, but in many ways it is remarkably similar statistically and philosophically to BYU’s. Both average around 6 yards per play and 30 points per game. Both are built around a relentless run game and timely quarterback play. I like BYU’s defense in that matchup. On offense, BYU has one clear weakness they can exploit. Retzlaff’s 158.7 pass efficiency rating against a standard rush can pose huge problems for a very conservative ASU defense.

Arizona State is an awesome football team that can give BYU problems if their ground game gets rolling, but I think BYU proves that the only fluky thing about their season was their loss last week.

BYU 28 – 24 ASU