ESPN predicts every game outcome on Notre Dame’s 2024 schedule

Texas A&M vs. Notre Dame Preview and Prediction | JD Pickell

Notre Dame has better expectations to break into the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff this college football season. But before they think too hard about the postseason, the Fighting Irish will have to get through their 2024 schedule.

The upcoming slate looks quite favorable for Notre Dame as they enter the season ranked No. 7 in the country. But what are the chances that the Fighting Irish run the table with an undefeated season to make their case for the CFP?

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ESPN’s FPI predicted Notre Dame’s chance of winning each and every one of their 12 games this season. Check out the odds below.

Aug. 31: Notre Dame at Texas A&M — 58.7% chance of winning

Notre Dame’s tallest task of the season comes early, taking a visit to College Station for a Week 1 matchup versus Texas A&M. A night game that will also represent the site of ESPN’s College GameDay to kick off the season.

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The Fighting Irish’s 58.7% chance of winning in Week 1 is their lowest of the entire 2024 schedule. With a win over the Aggies holding a large amount of weight for Notre Dame’s College Football Playoff hopes.

Sept. 7: Notre Dame vs. Northern Illinois — 96.8% chance of winning

The home opener of the Fighting Irish represents the first of six games where Notre Dame is favored by over 90% this season. Facing off against an NIU team that finished 7-6 in the MAC last season.

Week 2 will represent the first home game at Notre Dame Stadium for several new key players for the Fighting Irish. Including quarterback Riley Leonard, wide receiver Beaux Collins, and defensive lineman RJ Oben who all joined the team through the transfer portal this offseason.

Sept. 14: Notre Dame at Purdue — 84.4% chance of winning

Purdue will represent the first Big Ten team Notre Dame as faced since squaring off in a down to the wire matchup with Ohio State last season. As they’ll look to be on the winning side of things this time around on the road against the Boilermakers.

Last season Purdue had a disappointing 4-8 finish in their first season under Ryan Walters. And this year they could potentially stand in the way of a Notre Dame team that is clicking in all areas for a Week 3 matchup.

Sept. 21: Notre Dame vs. Miami (OH) — 94.8% chance of winning

Notre Dame’s matchup with Miami (OH) starts a three-game home stand for the Fighting Irish. Hosting the defending MAC Champions who will be looking for a statement win to potentially help their case as the lone Group of Five team in the College Football Playoff.

The Redhawks bring back 12 total starters and aren’t one of the first non-Power Four teams anyone wants to face. But regardless, Notre Dame is still rightfully heavily favored at home.

Sept. 28: Notre Dame vs Louisville — 95.3% chance of win

The Cardinals are the first of five ACC opponents Notre Dame faces off against this season. One of the three teams that was able to defeat the Fighting Irish last season on their way to an ACC Championship game appearance.

Louisville impressed in year one under Jeff Brohmbut he does lose his top passer, rusher, and receiver from last season. All that makes the Fighting Irish heavy favorites at home as they look to get redemption from last season’s 33-20 loss.

Oct. 12: Notre Dame vs. Stanford — 76% chance of winning

Stanford is new to the ACC this season, but not new to matchups against Notre Dame. As the two programs will be squaring off for the fourth-straight season in October.

Notre Dame is 2-1 against the Cardinal in their last three matchups. But when they do win against Stanford, they’ve won big, outscoring them 101-37 between their two wins last season and in 2021.

Oct. 19: Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech (at Mercedes-Benz Stadium) — 78.3% chance of winning

The Fighting Irish have three neutral site games in 2024. It’s a slate that still starts in the backyard of their opponent as they’ll face Georgia Tech in Atlanta not too far down the street from the Yellowjackets’ home stadium.

Georgia Tech started off the college football season with a bang, pulling off an upset win over Florida State in Week 0 at another neutral site in Ireland. But in terms of odds to win their matchup with Notre Dame, the luck resides with the Fighting Irish.

Oct. 26: Notre Dame vs Navy (at MetLife Stadium) — 97.3% chance of winning

Notre Dame plays in an NFL stadium for a second straight week in their matchup against Navy. Meeting up with the Midshipmen after the two programs squared off at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland to kick off last college football season.

The Fighting Irish made easy work of Navy with a 42-4 win across the pond last season. It’s a result that ESPN’s FPI clearly thinks is possible again with the highest win probability out of all of Notre Dame’s games this season.

Nov. 9: Notre Dame vs. Florida State — 75.5% chance of winning

Florida State’s trip to South Bend represents one of the few marquee matchups of Notre Dame’s schedule and one of three teams that entered the season ranked within the Top 25. But Florida State’s upset loss in Week 0 may have tainted the initial appeal of the game.

The Seminoles still have a long way to go before their matchup with the Fighting Irish. But regardless, the stakes will likely be high for both teams after entering the season with College Football Playoff aspirations.

Nov. 16: Notre Dame vs. Virginia — 92.6% chance of winning

Virginia is the final ACC opponent of Notre Dame’s schedule and another team with a disappointing record last season. Winning just three games last season for a second straight time under Tony Elliot.

Once again Notre Dame has an over 90% chance of winning a game at home. The Irish seniors will look to end things on the right note in what could be their final game at Notre Dame Stadium barring playing hosts to a playoff game.

Nov. 23: Notre Dame vs Army (Yankee Stadium) — 96.2% chance of winning

Army is the second academy school and the final neutral site appearance for Notre Dame in 2024. Facing off against the Black Knights in Yankee Stadium, one of the most unique backdrops for any college football game this season.

The Fighting Irish are no strangers to Yankee Stadium, getting wins over Syracuse in 2018 and Rutgers in 2013 at the home of the Bronx Bombers. Seeking another as a heavy favorite in the penultimate game of the regular season.

Nov. 30: Notre Dame at USC — 62.1% chance of winning

Notre Dame closes things out on the road in Los Angeles, taking on USC in one of the most exciting rivalry games that college football has to offer. Squaring off for the 95th time in a series that the Fighting Irish have the upper hand in.

The Trojans and Irish have split the series in their last two matchups. But with two new quarterbacks under center and potential CFP stakes on the line, this year’s battle for the Jeweled Shillelagh could be an instant classic. Representing Notre Dame’s lowest chance of a win since Week 1.