Thailand court dissolves country’s most popular political party

Buenos dias. Today we’re covering:

• The unwinding of the yen ‘carry trade’

• Can ‘Self-reliant India’ thrive?

• The Ambani family’s India Olympics campaign

But first, Thailand’s Constitutional Court has ordered the dissolution of the popular Move Forward party over its call to reform a harsh law on “lèse majesté”.

The party, led by Harvard-educated Pita Limjaroenrat, won last year’s election but was blocked from power by the country’s powerful conservative establishment. The court also ruled yesterday that the party’s top leadership, including Pita, would be banned from politics for 10 years.

The royal defamation law — one of the strictest in the world — criminalizes insults to Thailand’s monarch and his immediate family, and carries a maximum sentence of 15 years in prison.

Move Forward remains the country’s most popular political force, and Pita told the FT this year that a ruling to disband it would “turbocharge” Thailand’s progressive movement.

A. Anantha Lakshmi reports on what comes next for Thailand, including another crucial political case next week.

Here’s what I’m keeping tabs on today:

• Economic data: Philippines reports second-quarter economic growth figures.

• India interest rate decision: Most economists expect the country’s central bank to keep rates on hold.

• Japan: The Bank of Japan publishes the Summary of Opinions from its recent monetary policy meeting.

Five more top stories

1. The global unwinding of the yen “carry trade” has the potential to destabilize markets further, analysts have said. The resurgent Japanese currency has forced speculators to shut down bets running to hundreds of billions of dollars. “You can’t unwind the biggest carry trade the world has ever seen without breaking a few heads,” said one currency strategist.

• Markets: Japanese stocks rallied yesterday and the yen fell after a central bank official appeared to play down the immediate prospects of further interest rate rises.

• SoftBank: The Japanese conglomerate has laid out plans to buy back up to ¥500bn ($3.4bn) of its own shares after the market rout and following pressure from activist investors.

• FT webinar: Join Robert Armstrong, chief US financial commentator, and FT colleagues from Tokyo to London for an August 14 subscriber webinar to discuss the recent trading turmoil and where markets go next. Register here.

2. India’s central bank has called on the country’s lenders not to add to existing bets against the rupee as it seeks to prop up a currency that has recently hit record lows. One Indian banker said the recent market turmoil in Japan and the US might have prompted the warning.

3. China’s export growth missed expectations last month in dollar terms. Analysts said it was a signal to policymakers that their heavy dependence on trade to overcome a weak domestic economy may be facing growing risks.

• Trade war concerns: Companies are bringing orders forward amid fears of an intensifying trade war between China and the US in a move that could further worsen supply chain problems, according to the boss of AP Møller-Maersk.

4. Chile’s sole steel mill has said it will shut down in the face of competition from cheap Chinese imports. The closure is a blow to the Chilean government, which had imposed tariffs on China earlier this year in a bid to save it.

5. Judges have begun handing down prison sentences that the government hopes will help end days of far-right violence across England. The punishments came as businesses closed early yesterday over fears of more riots.

The Big Read

India is determined to catch up with China — but strictly on its own terms. Narendra Modi’s Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyaan, or “Self-reliant India”, campaign, has translated to some of the harshest restrictions on Chinese inward investment of any major world economy. But some critics are warning that the prime minister’s tough line on China could starve India of the capital, components and knowhow needed to realize its ambition of becoming a major manufacturing power.

We are also reading . . .

• South Korea: The arrest of a tech tycoon has shone a light on the dysfunctional relationship between business, politics and law enforcement.

• Cancer: Rising rates of the disease among young people have profound public health implications, writes Anjana Ahuja. What could be the blame?

• War memes and bomb shelters: The wait for a seemingly inevitable confrontation between Israel and Hizbollah has bred both gallows humor and an underlying dread for Israelis and Lebanese.

Chart of the day

A wave of consolidation has swept across China’s battery industry, leading to canceled investments and the exits of smaller players amid slowing electric vehicle sales, fierce competition and stricter regulations.

Take a break from the news

Nita Ambani, the wife of Asia’s richest tycoon Mukesh, has embarked on a publicity blitz at the Paris Olympics as she lobbies for India to host the 2036 summer games. The campaign highlights the way so-called “Bollygarch” tycoons are increasingly influencing public life in India — a trend critics say often blurs the line between national good and private interest.

Additional contributions from Harvey Nriapia and Tee Zhuo