Staying mild this weekend as we track the tropics

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) – A mostly dry, warm weekend will continue across the region. In the tropics, we are tracking a subtropical storm and an area of ​​interest.

Tonight Through Sunday Night

A calm night is on tap across the Big Bend and South Georgia. We stay dry under a partly cloudy sky. Low temperatures fall into the mid-60s.

High pressure remains in control for the second half of the weekend. As a result, we are tracking another mainly dry, mild day. Highs on Sunday top out in the mid-80s under a mix of Sun and clouds. A stray shower is possible, but most of us will stay dry.

Calm weather will linger into Sunday night. Lows dip into the mid-60s under a partly cloudy to mostly clear sky.

Starting The Work Week

Our “copy and paste” forecast will continue to kick off the new work week.

Temperatures on Monday reach the mid-and-upper-80s under some sunshine. Again, an isolated shower is possible, but rain chances remain very minimal. Overnight lows settle in the mid-and-lower-60s.

Tuesday is looking mild and mainly dry for Election Day. Highs hover in the mid-to-upper-80s under some sunshine. We could see an isolated shower for Tuesday evening. Lows are back in the upper-60s.

Extended Forecast

For the middle of next week, we could see an increase in moisture across our region.

Models are not in great agreement at this point, but spotty showers are looking possible for Wednesday and Thursday under a partly sunny sky.

Highs reach the mid-80s for both days, and lows bottom out in the upper-60s and lower-70s.

Tropical Update

Saturday morning, Subtropical Storm Patty formed in the northern Atlantic. This system poses no threat to the United States.

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In the Caribbean, we are monitoring an area of ​​interest with a high chance of tropical formation. Invest 97L has a 70% chance of formation over the next 48 hours and an 80% chance over the next seven days.

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During the Saturday afternoon update, the National Hurricane Center said a tropical depression is likely to form in the Caribbean within the next couple of days.

The next name on the list is Rafael.

We are too far away for specifics on the path, intensity and timing of this system, but let’s talk about the current model data.

At this stage, we typically look at two major global models: the GFS (American) model and the European model.

Both models show a tropical system moving into the Gulf of Mexico in the middle of next week (Nov. 6-7). However, there are some disagreements on the track and the strength.

The GFS model is showing a slightly stronger system that moves further north. On the other hand, the European model is showing a weaker system that stays further south.

At this point, we are watching it closely, but (typically) the environment in the Gulf of Mexico is not as welcoming for strong tropical systems in November because of wind shear, dry air and cooler water temperatures.

The hurricane hunters are scheduled to investigate this area of ​​interest on Sunday. We will keep you posted.

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