No more October surprises: Professors predict possible presidential outcomes

While most voters have made up their minds and the possibility of an October surprise is quickly vanishing, Hillsdale College professors said the presidential election is a tossup, depending on election integrity and narrow margins in the swing states.

“The most likely swing states to flip to Trump seem to be, in descending order, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania,” Associate Professor of Politics Joseph Postell said. “If Trump wins Michigan and Wisconsin, my sense is that he also wins most of the above states. The campaigns are spending a lot of time in Michigan and Pennsylvania, which indicates the importance of those states to the outcome.”

Of the swing states, the margin of the election likely depends on Pennsylvania, Postell said.

“All roads seem to lead to Pennsylvania this year — it seems like neither candidate can win without Pennsylvania,” he said. “I could see the results diverging across the battleground Rust Belt states, where Michigan and Wisconsin go for Harris and Pennsylvania goes for Trump. It seems possible, but less likely, that the same divergence occurs with Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.”

Lecturer in Journalism and General Manager of WRFH Radio Free Hillsdale 101.7 FM Scot Bertram also said he thinks the race will be closest in the Rust Belt.

“It wouldn’t surprise me if Michigan and Wisconsin are two of the absolute closest states, and maybe they get split,” Bertram said. “You know, one goes one way, one goes the other way. But I don’t think it will be a one state race this time.”

Among the swing states, Bertram said Nevada might be the least likely to flip.

“Nevada is the ‘Great White Whale.’ It always teases and never delivers,” Bertram said. “There are a lot of different dynamics happening in Nevada, with population centers and union support, and so I think Nevada will be too far out of reach again for Trump and the Republicans.”

Bertram said he thinks the election will be incredibly close.

“I don’t think it’ll be a blowout. I don’t think it will be a 300-electoral vote victory,” Bertram said. “But it could be close — 290, 291, I think, are realistic numbers.”

According to Associate Professor of Politics Mark Kremer, the path to victory for Trump is simple.

“As long as the Democrats don’t cheat, I think Trump will win the election,” Kremer said.

Chris Netley, lecturer in sports studies, said the energy seems to be on former President Donald Trump’s side, noting the size of and enthusiasm for his recent rally in Manhattan.

“There are not many performing artists that can sell out Madison Square Garden. And so it almost feels like now, it’s almost become cool to be conservative, which is weird,” Netley said. “Democrats used to be the rebel party against the status quo, but now because the Left wants to censor everything and take away everything, they’ve almost turned their party on its head.”

Although under a week remains until the election, Postell said he believes the margins of the result — whatever it might be — are likely set in stone.

“I don’t foresee any more ‘October surprises,’ especially planned ones, because so much early voting has already taken place in critical states,” Postell said. “Any major shake-ups might occur too late to change the outcome in close states. This is a new feature of presidential elections, so October surprises will now have to be ‘early October surprises.’”

Discussing the Senate races, Postell said differing results for political parties across races is more common than one might think.

“Many voters like Trump individually but do not translate support for Trump into support for other Republicans. The same thing occurred with Obama — he was very popular individually, but the Democratic Party as a whole suffered heavy losses even while he was in the White House,” Postell said. “This suggests something I’ve believed for years, which is that our political parties are much weaker than people commonly think they are.”

Postell said he thinks Democrats could win the Senate.

“I think the Senate races in Michigan and Pennsylvania look very good for the Democrats. Ohio looks close but I would still bet on Sherrod Brown winning that seat,” Postell said. “Those results would be revealing: voters still split their tickets, and Trump’s coattails are rather weak. Democratic Senate candidates are running well ahead of Harris in many states — Arizona is especially revealing.”

Bertram said he believes split-ticket voting might apply to Michigan’s Senate race, one that he expects former Republican congressman Mike Rogers to lose to Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin.

“I think that Trump will run ahead of Rogers by a point or two, and I think that Michigan is a state that probably stays blue for the presidential race by the slimmest of margins,” Bertram said. “If that’s the case, I don’t think Rogers is going to run ahead of Trump. If Trump is not going to win Michigan, I don’t think that Rogers is going to win the Senate race.”

Assistant Professor of History Miles Smith said he believes Rogers has a fighting chance, and he is cautiously optimistic about the Republican Senate candidates in Pennsylvania and Ohio.

“Mike Rogers has mounted a stronger than expected performance in the Michigan Senate election. Whether that puts him over the top, I’m not sure,” Smith said. “If Trump wins in Pennsylvania, I expect McCormick to win. “Moreno seems likely to win in Ohio.”

Laboratory director Doug Dobrozsi opted not to make any predictions, citing the instability of our modern political environment.

“No prediction. It’s a fool’s game,” Dobrozsi said. “The most perennially reliable statistical prediction methods failed in 2020. Recent history shows anything can happen. “I do predict there are surprises yet to come.”

He said the results of this election will say a lot about the kind of country we are.

“I spend more time thinking about the truth in the saying that we get the leaders we deserve,” Dobrozsi said.