Golden Gophers Prevail in Big Ten Showdown

Minnesota vs Illinois prediction and best bet

My best bet
Minnesota -3 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
Minnesota has fallen short of bookmakers’ expectations exactly once this season, a 31-14 loss to Iowa as a 3-point favorite on Sept. 21. In the Gophers’ season opener, they pushed against the spread, losing by two to North Carolina as, indeed, two-point underdogs.

Only so much can be gleaned from the two games between those, with Minnesota easily topping the spreads of -26.5 and -16.5 in 48- and 27-point wins, respectively. Beating up on FCS-level Rhode Island and overmatched Nevada is preferable to the alternative, but it is not inherently informative.

Looking at those box scores, though, something becomes clear. Gophers’ star running back Darius Taylor was not 100%. He missed the season opener to injury, and then in the next three games he took just 35 carries for 222 total yards. Add in 13 carries for 36 yards at Michigan, and Taylor’s average rush through his first four games was only 5.38 yards.

In the three games since, including one game played at UCLA, Taylor has taken 56 carries for 255 yards, a 4.55 average.

On the surface, that looks like a step backward. But what stands out is the attempts per game, 18.7 in the last three compared to just 12 per game in Taylor’s first four this season.

It is no coincidence that Minnesota has covered the spread in the last three games by an average of 12 points compared to oddsmakers’ expectations. It goes a bit below the radar, but PJ Fleck prefers to run the ball, to such a degree it should negatively impact the Gophers on the quarterback transfer market next offseason.

With Taylor a healthy ballcarrier, Minnesota fares much better. Meanwhile, Illinois ranks No. 87 in expected points added (EPA) per rush against, per cfb-graphs. Worse yet, the Illini give up success on 48% of opposing rushes, No. 126 in the country.

Taylor and the Gophers should control the game on Saturday afternoon, and that alone is enough reason to believe in Minnesota winning this Big Ten West matchup by at least a field goal.

Minnesota vs Illinois same-game parlay (SGP)

Taylor has crossed this yardage prop in two of the last three games, against USC and Maryland. By EPA per rush against, the Trojans (No. 47 in the country, -0.033 EPA per rush against) and the Terrapins (No. 37, -0.046) are significantly better than Illinois, ranked No. 87 because it gives up +0.027 EPA per rush against.

In other words, Taylor should get plenty of chances to run because those chances will improve Minnesota’s standing. It should also be noted he has scored in each of the last two games and five of seven this season.

If Taylor is carrying the lion’s share of Minnesota’s offense, that will slow down this game. The Gophers are better defensively, an excellent passing defense well-suited to fluster Illinois’s offensive strength.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Minnesota vs Illinois odds

Minnesota vs Illinois live odds

Minnesota vs Illinois opening odds

• Minnesota vs. Illinois spread: Illinois +2.5
• Minnesota vs. Illinois moneyline: Minnesota -150, Illinois +125
• Minnesota vs. Illinois Over/Under: 45.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Minnesota vs Illinois spread and Over/Under analysis

• Sunday’s first genuine lines were simply off, favoring Illinois by three points before the market quickly corrected. Why? Likely because the Illini are at home and mere advanced metrics do not entirely understand the impact Taylor can have when healthy, thus underrating his impact in recent weeks.
• Once corrected, this spread held at -2.5 toward Minnesota into Monday afternoon, then ticking up to -3.
• This total first hit the market at 46.5 and quickly fell to 45.5, remaining there all week.
• The fact that the spread moved so much while the total remained steady underscores the fact that the first spread offering was simply wrong.

Minnesota vs Illinois betting trend to know

Two of the Golden Gophers’ last three games have gone Under their totals, as have three of the Fighting Illini’s last four. Find more college football betting trends for Minnesota vs Illinois.

Minnesota vs Illinois game info

Minnesota vs Illinois latest injuries

Minnesota vs Illinois weather

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