Drought causes massive jump this fall

This past month Massachusetts saw “an unprecedented spike” in wildfires due to the ongoing and worsening drought conditions across New England, state fire officials said. About 200 wildfires broke out, leading to a sharp 1,200 percent increase over the average: A typical October sees about 15 fires in the state.

By now, it shouldn’t be a surprise that most of New England is in dire need of significant rain this season, with many areas having fallen far below normal levels. Over 80 percent of Massachusetts is running abnormally dry or worse, with 14 percent of the state, including the Boston area, having entered a “severe drought” stage earlier this week. October closed with Boston and many other areas in the state over 3 inches below the monthly average.

The reason? A persistent pattern of high pressure has parked itself somewhat permanently over the Northeast during the past few months and is forecast to continue doing so as we push further into November.

This stuck dry pattern has wicked out moisture from soils and has made the area vulnerable to wildfires. On top of the lack of rain, warmer than average temperatures and reduced humidity levels in the atmosphere has made ground vegetation highly flammable — making the smallest of sparks a potential serious fire hazard.

Over half of the fires in Massachusetts have occurred in the last week, keeping fire departments working overtime and scrambling for resources to contain these blazes.

“More than a quarter of this year’s brush and wildland fires took place in October,” said Chief Fire Warden David Celino of the Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation. “They accounted for more than half of the 1,158 acres burned so far this year.”

Here are the major wildfires still considered active across the state:

• Cain Hill Fire in Salem/Lynn: Currently at 140 acres and 50 percent contained
• Middleton Pond Fire in Middleton: 188 acres and 70 percent contained
• Curry 24 Fire in Devens: 100 acres and 99 percent contained
• Pappas Fire in Canton: 32 acres and 90 percent contained
• Trader’s Way Fire in Salem: 15 acres and 50 percent contained
• Maple Meadow Fire in Wilmington: 10 acres and 70 percent contained
• Wolcott Hill/Blue Hills Reservation: 2 acres and 100 percent contained
• Mt. Laurel Fire in Holden: 6 acres and 95 percent contained
• Old Forest Road Fire in North Andover: 5 acres and 30 percent contained

Warmer temperatures this past month, some areas averaging over 4 degrees warmer than average, have caused more moisture to evaporate from the ground. And without replacing moisture with rainfall, trees, shrubs, leaves and grass become more flammable. Enter breezy conditions and you have the makings of a large wildfire from just small flames.

New England isn’t really known to have a fall fire problem, this is something that usually occurs in the spring coming out of winter. “The lack of tree canopy (in the transition from winter to spring) and snow thaw allows the leaf litter to become a fire risk,” said John Rogan, a geography professor at Clark University.

This fall, “relatively high winds make these conditions more dangerous,” said James Urban, assistant professor at Worcester Polytechnic Institute. “Dry and windy conditions create the potential for very rapid fire spread. The previous year (2023) did see some days with higher rainfall, which could have contributed to more fine fuel accumulation which could then quickly dry out with a drought and become flammable.”

State authorities are pleading for residents to exercise caution when it comes to properly disposing ignition sources and refraining from outdoor fires. Although it may be cooler this weekend, it should still stay plenty dry with a slight breeze in place for both Saturday and Sunday.

A Red Flag Warning is in place for all three Southern New England states through Friday evening and may very well extend into Saturday.

“Residents can be more careful with the use of equipment that can cause a spark, but little can be done to prevent fires in forested areas over large expanses,” Rogan said.

Other tips include proper disposal of ashes from fireplaces and wood stoves in a metal can — do not simply dump them outdoors or in the trash, officials said.

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Ken Mahan can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Instagram @kenmahantheweatherman.