2024 hurricane season damage costs in US soar, estimates say

November 1, 2024 Vaseline blog 0

2024 hurricane season damage costs in US soar, estimates say

Preliminary economic loss data show 2024 is likely to be one of the most costly hurricane seasons of the modern era.

After five hurricanes made landfall on the mainland United States, the disastrous 2024 hurricane season may not be over yet. With more than a month remaining, forecasters are watching a potential storm in the Caribbean.

Even without another storm, the preliminary toll in economic losses – with initial estimates rolling in at between $127 billion to $129 billion – means it’s likely to be among the most costly hurricane seasons of the modern era.

Comparing estimated hurricane damages over time can be tricky, but losses after the busy 2005 hurricane season have ranged from roughly $175 billion when adjusted for inflation, to more than $200 billion. Since 1980, losses per hurricane have averaged nearly $23 billion, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

“This is a very impactful season overall,” said Jeff Waters, director of North Atlantic Hurricane Models for Moody’s, a global research and analysis firm. “We’re definitely getting into a category here where this season is going to stand out in terms of collective insured losses.”

So far, the calamitous season has produced 10 hurricanes, including four major hurricanes and five other named storms. Evidence of the devastation is spread across at least eight states.

More than 300 lives have been lost in the US Searches for the missing and efforts to reestablish utilities continue in the North Carolina mountains. Massive debris piles line streets in communities in a swath across Florida.

In a recent preliminary report, Gallagher Re, a global reinsurance broker, said it “conservatively” estimated the total economic losses from Helene and Milton alone at more than $100 billion.

Billions in damage during 2024 hurricane season

Moody’s, Gallagher Re and CoreLogic, a property data and analysis firm, have released preliminary estimates of insured losses and the economic costs of the storms. Here’s a summary:

Beryl – After battering the Caribbean and setting records for the earliest Category 4 and 5 hurricane, Beryl made landfall in Matagorda, Texas, on July 8 with 80 mph winds, then its remnants delivered more than 60 tornadoes and rain in a swath across the Northeast, claiming at least 38 lives, according to The Associated Press.

Insured losses in the US are estimated at between $2.5 billion and $4.5 billion. Total economic losses, including the Virgin Islands, are estimated at more than $7.5 billion.

Debbie – Becoming the second to hurricane strike the same Florida county in less than a year, Debby made landfall near Steinhatchee on Aug. 5 as a Category 1 hurricane, then made landfall again near Bulls Bay, South Carolina, as a tropical storm three days later .

Estimates for insured losses range between $1.5 billion and $3.4 billion, with Gallagher Re putting the overall economic losses at an estimated $7 billion.

Francine – After forming in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico, Francine quickly intensified to a Category 2 hurricane and made landfall in Terrebonne Parish on the Louisiana coast with 100 mph winds just three days later on Sept. 11.

Insured losses were estimated at between $1.5 billion and $2 billion, and the economic damages at $15 billion.

Helene – After forming in the Northwestern Caribbean, Helene quickly intensified into a major hurricane. It became the third hurricane to strike Florida’s Taylor County in just 13 months when it made landfall with 140 mph winds on Sept. 26. Maintaining high wind speeds and helping to push immense rainfall, it caused damage across the Southeast, including cataclysmic floods and landslides in North Carolina and Tennessee.

To date, 227 deaths have been attributed to the hurricane. Insured losses were estimated at between $8 billion and $17.5 billion.

Milton – The tiny storm rocketed to winds of more than 180 mph in the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, before striking Florida as a Category 3 hurricane just a month after Helene. State officials have reported at least 29 deaths.

The storm wrecked an estimated $17 billion to $36 billion in economic losses. The majority of insured losses were the $13 billion to $22 billion from wind damage, according to CoreLogic, but that doesn’t include all of the 43 tornadoes that struck the southern half of Florida.

As Milton neared landfall, “it interacted with the jet stream over the southeastern US causing the winds on the northern and northwestern sides of the hurricane – generally known to be weaker – to be atypically strong,” said Daniel Betten, forensic meteorology director at CoreLogic As a result, the storm created “two distinct lines of damaging, hurricane-force winds.”

Together, Helene and Milton could cost the National Flood Insurance Program more than $5 billion, Moody’s estimated, while Gallagher Re estimated the total costs of the two storms at more than $100 billion.

Which hurricane season produced the most economic damage?

Unfortunately, other recent seasons also stand out, whether it’s 2022, which included Ian, or 2017, with Harvey, Irma and Maria, Waters said.

Comparing hurricane seasons over time in terms of costs can be difficult. Far more people live in hurricane-prone areas than ever before, with more expensive properties. Research studies also point out structures are built with stronger building code requirements than in the past.

For decades, Roger Pielke Jr., a professor at the University of Colorado Boulder, has worked with other scientists on studies that normalize hurricane season losses dating back to 1900, adjusting not only for inflation but also calculating wealth and coastal population. Pielke continues to update the figures each year.

His latest preliminary normalized estimates for 2024, provided by Pielke on Wednesday, and previous studies, show the 1926 season, with the Great Miami Hurricane, would be considered the most costly in history, at roughly $308 billion. The hurricane caused catastrophic damage in Miami and along the Gulf Coast.

The infamous 2005 hurricane season is the second costliest on record on the normalized list, with total damages estimated at $215 billion after seven hurricanes made landfall in the US, including Katrina. Normalized losses for the 1900 season, which included the Galveston hurricane, put it third at $176 billion.

With Pielke’s latest preliminary estimates adjusted only for inflation in 2024 dollars, the 2005, 2017 and 2022 hurricane seasons rank 1, 2 and 3, at $173 billion, $127 billion and $118 billion.

Growing concerns

Increasing inland rainfall like the 31.33 inches seen ahead of and during Helene in Busick, North Carolina, and the associated rise in flood-related deaths has become a growing concern for residents, the National Hurricane Center and the insurance industry.

The flood losses this summer, like those seen in the North Carolina mountains and with the storm surging on Florida’s coast, underscore a key worry – the gap between those who have flood insurance and those who don’t, Waters said. Activity across the last 5-7 years “highlights the need for that gap to close.”

Improving the ability to estimate risks

For agents and insurance companies trying to write insurance, one of the challenges is understanding the evolving landscape, Waters said.

Part of that is learning to use the catastrophe models being developed to try to quantify the near-term risk and to look to the future, including how the warming world will affect particular profiles, he said. “Climate change is definitely an area of ​​growing interest.”

The Gallagher Re report points out that 2024 remains on pace to be the warmest year ever officially recorded. It stated: “The fingerprints of climate change continue to become more evident on individual events.”