SEC standings, tiebreaker scenarios to make title game in Week 13

November 24, 2024 Vaseline blog 0

SEC standings, tiebreaker scenarios to make title game in Week 13

With two weeks remaining in the college football regular season, the top of the Southeastern Conference standings continues to be congested — so much so that there remains no clear-cut conference champion in the standings entering Week 13.

And it’s something that might not be locked up until the 12th hour come next Saturday.

Entering Week 13, No. 3 Texas and No. 14 Texas A&M remain tied for first place in the standings with 5-1 records in SEC play. Both the Longhorns and Aggies are set to square off in Week 14 for the first time since 2011.

REQUIRED READING: Root against Notre Dame? That shouldn’t be hard for Tennessee football fans | Toppmeyer

But the path to Atlanta for the SEC championship game doesn’t stop in the state of Texas, as three other teams remain in contention for the title game. No. 8 Georgia is in third place at 6-2 in SEC play after beating No. 11 Tennessee, now 5-2. Then there is No. 7 Alabama and No. 9 Ole Miss, who are both tied for fifth at 4-2.

Although the Vols are in fourth place in the SEC and not officially eliminated from contention for the SEC championship game, Tennessee’s path to Atlanta is a proverbial Hail Mary away from becoming reality.

The winner of the SEC championship game will not only claim conference supremacy, but also an automatic bid and potential first-round bye in the new College Football Playoff. So, needless to say, there is a lot at stake in winning the SEC championship game.

Here is an updated look at the SEC standings and tiebreaker scenarios heading into Week 13, including specific scenarios for the handful of teams that could appear in the SEC championship game:

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SEC standings tiebreaker

With divisions being removed for the first time since 1991 — due to the expansion of the league with the additions of Texas and Oklahoma — the SEC announced six new tiebreakers should there be a tie in the standings come the end of the regular season.

Here are the six tiebreakers, per the SEC:

  1. Head-to-head competition among the tied teams
  2. Record versus all common conference opponents among the tied teams
  3. Record against highest (best) placed common conference opponent in the conference standings, and proceeding through the conference standings among the tied teams
  4. Cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents among the tied teams
  5. Capped relative total scoring margin versus all conference opponents among the tied teams
  6. Random draw of the tied teams

As noted by the SEC, a clear-cut conference champion is determined at the end of the regular season. If two or more teams are tied for second place, the conference champion will be the home team in the SEC championship game and the tiebreaker scenarios will be used to determine the other team.

If there are two teams tied for first place in the SEC at the end of the regular season, both teams will qualify for the SEC championship game.

SEC tiebreaker scenarios

Five SEC teams remain in contention for a spot in the SEC championship game on Dec. 8 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, per bball.notnothing.net.

Here are the easiest (and least stressful) paths for the five teams to make the SEC championship game:

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Texas

  • Beat Kentucky AND Texas A&M

Texas controls its own SEC championship destiny. If the Longhorns win their two remaining games vs. Kentucky and Texas A&M, they’re in.

Texas A&M

Similarly to rival Texas, the Aggies need no help to make the SEC championship game. They need only to beat Auburn in Week 13 and Texas in Week 14 to make their first-ever conference title game since joining the SEC in 2012.

Alabama

  • Beat Oklahoma AND Auburn
  • Missouri beats Mississippi State OR Arkansas

Alabama has a path to the SEC championship game, but it isn’t as simple compared to the Longhorns and Aggies’. The Crimson Tide not only has to win out but must also receive some help from Missouri, which must win at least one of its two remaining games vs. Mississippi State and Arkansas.

If that happens, Alabama would punch its ticket to Atlanta based on the fourth SEC tiebreaker: conference opponent win percentage (either 50% or 48.4%, depending on whether Missouri wins one or both of its remaining games). A loss by the Crimson Tide over the next two weeks would eliminate it from contention.

Georgia

Georgia, which has already finished the SEC portion of its schedule, can only hope to make the conference title game based on the results of other teams in the final two weeks. If the Bulldogs receive the help they need, they could face Texas for the second time this season or Texas A&M.

Here’s what would need to happen for Georgia for an appearance in the SEC championship game:

To face Texas A&M:

  • Texas A&M wins out OR loses to either Auburn OR Texas
  • Alabama loses to either Oklahoma OR Auburn
  • Ole Miss loses out OR losses to either Florida OR Mississippi State

To face Texas:

  • Texas beats Kentucky and Texas A&M
  • Texas A&M loses to Auburn AND Texas
  • Ole Miss and Alabama lose one of their final two games

REQUIRED READING: Root against Notre Dame? That shouldn’t be hard for Tennessee football fans | Toppmeyer

Ole Miss

  • Beat Florida AND Mississippi State
  • Texas A&M loses to Auburn AND Texas
  • Alabama losses to Oklahoma OR Auburn
  • Tennessee loses to Vanderbilt

Then there is Ole Miss, who like Georgia would need a certain level of chaos to erupt to slip into the conference title game. The simplest route for the Rebels is to win out and hope for several major upsets, including Texas A&M to go winless vs. Auburn and Texas; Alabama to lose to either Oklahoma or Auburn; and for Vanderbilt to beat Tennessee.

There’s also a scenario in which four SEC teams finish in a five-way tie for second place in the conference standings, with Alabama earning the final spot in the SEC championship game through the tiebreaker procedure.

Best chances to win SEC championship game

Using ESPN’s College Football Power Index as a database, Alabama has the best chance of winning the SEC championship game.

Here’s a look at full look the chances of SEC teams to win the title game per ESPN’s FPI, which factors in the chances of making the SEC championship game and winning it:

  1. Alabama (39.5%)
  2. Texas (39.2%)
  3. Georgia (17%)
  4. Texas A&M (3.4%)
  5. Ole Miss (0.9%)
  6. Tennessee (0.1%)

SEC standings entering Week 13

Here’s a look at what the SEC standings look like entering Week 13:

SEC record in parentheses

  • T-1. Texas (5-1)
  • T-1. Texas A&M (5-1)
  • 3. Georgia (6-2)
  • 4. Tennessee (5-2)
  • T-5. Alabama (4-2)
  • T-5. Ole Miss (4-2)