What happens if Auburn upsets Texas A&M?

Entering Week 13, it does seem like the SEC Championship Game race could be quite simple. If everything goes chalk on Saturday, then it will essentially be set up for the Alabama Crimson Tide to face the winner of the much-anticipated showdown between Texas and Texas A&M in the regular season finale.

But what about the 2024 college football season would make us think we’re not going to have some chaos thrown into the mix.

Three of the potential SEC contenders, specifically in the College Football Playoff race, are all on the road in Week 13. Texas A&M has to go on the road to face Auburn, Alabama has to go to Norman to play Oklahoma, and Ole Miss is playing in The Swamp against Florida after the Gators took down LSU a week ago.

Make no mistake, A&M, Bama and Ole Miss are all favorites in those games. Upsets happen, though, and if they did in this case, it could throw the SEC Championship Game race and the SEC standings into a bit of disarray and confusion. So let’s go game-by-game through these three potential upsets to see what would be set up.

Looking at this matchup, you would probably think that Texas A&M would be at least a touchdown favorite, even on the road at Jordan-Hare Stadium. But no, the oddsmakers have the Aggies as just 2-to-2.5-point favorites on the road against Auburn. It seems like an upset might be more in the cards than we thought, which would cause quite a bit of chaos and put even more pressure on the Aggies.

If A&M loses to Auburn and then loses to Texas in the season finale, that would give us a Texas vs. Alabama matchup in the SEC Championship Game. That, in itself, isn’t too crazy. Even if the Aggies win on Saturday in Week 13, that would be the case if they lose to Texas.

However, what’s more interesting is that, if Texas A&M loses to Auburn but then turns around and upsets Texas in Week 14, that would then set up a Georgia vs. Alabama rematch in the SEC Championship Game. The Bulldogs would sit ahead of A&M in the conference standings based on conference opponent win percentage.

It’s worth noting, though, that if A&M were to lose while Alabama were also to be upset by Oklahoma, then a win over Texas would be crucial as that would then make Georgia vs. Texas A&M the SEC Championship Game matchup.

Now, let’s remove A&M for the occasion and focus on the matchup in Norman in Week 13. Alabama is a 14-point favorite against the Sooners according to FanDuel Sportsbook as of Saturday morning. Then again, we all know that anything could happen.

If anything happens and Alabama were upset, it would obviously remove the Crimson Tide from the SEC Championship Game conversation as they’d take a third conference loss on the season, needing mass chaos to get to Atlanta with that. And the biggest beneficiary of an Alabama loss would be the Georgia Bulldogs.

With an Oklahoma win over Alabama, it would ostensibly put Georgia in the spot Alabama currently occupies. That means that Georgia would be set up to play the winner of the Texas-Texas A&M matchup in Week 14 in the SEC Championship Game. That is also actually the case no matter if A&M beats Auburn on Saturday or not.

Unfortunately for Ole Miss — or perhaps fortunately depending on what you believe from Lane Kiffin — the paths to the SEC Championship Game are already limited and, perhaps more importantly, a loss on the road at Florida wouldn’t have too much effect on the rest of the SEC race.

Perhaps the biggest implications for the Rebels would be for the College Football Playoff. A loss against Florida would make it extremely difficult to justify having Ole Miss in the 12-team Playoff field.