Thanksgiving weather forecast: Storm could bring snow to NYC

STATEN ISLAND, NY — Although the forecast is constantly changing, Bob Larson, a senior meteorologist with AccuWeather, says there is a “non-zero chance” that snow could find its way into New York City this Thanksgiving.

Despite the odds of frosty precipitation being low at this time, Larson forecasts that a storm will hit the five boroughs just in time for the upcoming holiday.

Initially, forecasts were giving Wednesday, a major travel day, a chance of rain in the areas around the city. Larson now believes motorists will experience “reasonably good travel weather nearby.”

Those traveling in Upstate New York and parts of New England will want to note that the chance exists for some snow showers. However, as Larson clarifies, this is not shaping up to be a major snowstorm or lake-effect snow outbreak.

“The rest of the eastern seaboard from New York City southward to Florida looks to be dry on Wednesday,” Larson said.

The storm threat that could jeopardize festivities in the city on Thursday is expected to come out of the Midwest. Larson explains that the roughest travel conditions Wednesday are expected to occupy the Rocky Mountain area.

The latest Thanksgiving forecast

While Larson notes that models are portraying varying outcomes for Thursday’s forecast, “as it stands” Friday night, precipitation is expected to move in on Thursday and persist through the night into Friday.

“A storm has the potential to snarl transit for those even traveling locally across portions of the Midwest and Northeast on Thanksgiving Day, even those chasing Black Friday deals could contend with travel challenges,” explained AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tyler Roys.

Even though Larson believes this precipitation will likely come in as rain, it’s “not out of the question” for a rain/snow mix to impact the north and west suburbs of New York City. The chance also exists for this precipitation to come in as mostly snow in these suburbs, according to Larson.

Different outlooks show different timeframes for this storm.

“Solutions vary from starting as soon as Thanksgiving morning, ie during the parade, to potentially holding off as late as late Thursday night or even Friday morning, the day after Thanksgiving,” said Larson. “So taking the middle ground and consensus approach, it looks as though we’re leaning towards some precipitation moving in Thursday afternoon. And if I had to pick one time period that would be most likely to be wet, it would probably be centered on Thursday night.”

Fortunately, Larson doesn’t believe elevated winds to be much of an issue Thursday. Should gusty winds overtake the area, the parade could face trouble given the grand balloons.

Residents of the city could experience elevated winds on the storm’s heels Friday, but as of Friday night, Larson does not foresee winds being a problem for the holiday.

Snow may not be the most likely scenario Thursday, however, Larson notes that snowflakes are within the realm of possibility. The further north and west you go, the greater the odds of seeing snow, given the higher elevations and distance from the ocean, Larson explained.

As far as precipitation intensity goes, any rain or snowfall is expected to be steady, according to Larson.

“In terms of intensity, right now it doesn’t look to be as heavy as what you just saw over the last 36 hours,” Larson said.

Since the start of the latest storm early Thursday morning, Staten Island has received 1.67 inches of rain as of Friday evening, as recorded by the Advance/SILive.com weather station.

“Right now, this system coming up that we’re talking about, Thanksgiving time, does not appear to be as wet or as moisture laden,” added Larson.