UNLV vs. San Jose State Prediction: Week 13 College Football Picks

Three games are on the Friday night slate in Week 13. Three conferences are also on display, as the AAC, Big Ten, and Mountain West all have different start times. All of the games also feature favorites above a touchdown, at least a couple days in advance of the action.

Temple vs. UTSA, Purdue vs. Michigan State and UNLV vs. San Jose State are the games under the microscope and all three of them are intriguing in their own way. Let’s start with the late game in California and go from there.

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10pm ET (FS1)

The Spartans did a lot of dirty bettors last week, as they failed to cover against Boise State. The Broncos scored two touchdowns in the final 2:23, including a pick-six. Then the Spartans got all the way down to the Boise 1-yard-line before not scoring at the end of regulation. It was a game where SJSU had 483 yards of offense, including 446 through the air.

Now they host UNLV, a game that still features a chance to beat a Top 25 opponent, but not with the magnitude of the one against the Broncos. UNLV needs some help to get into the Mountain West title game, as the loss to Boise State looms large with no head-to-head meeting with Colorado State. The Rebels play the annual rivalry game against Nevada next week and could have a shot at winning 10 games for the first time since 1974 under Ron Meyer as a Division II school.

So, there are still some attainable goals for the Rebs. Win 10 games. Beat your rival. The Spartans have already secured bowl eligibility as they head into their final conference game. Stanford takes a trip down the coast next week. But, a Top 25 win is something SJSU hasn’t had since 2013 with a win over Fresno State. That was a 62-52 game.

I don’t think we see 114 points on Friday night. In fact, I think we see a lot less than that. These are two good offenses with 6.97 and 6.34 yards per play in conference action, as UNLV leads the way in that department. But, these have also been two good defenses. San Jose State has allowed 5.33 YPP and UNLV has allowed 5.41. When you think about the fact that very few teams in this conference play defense, but most have decent offenses, those are solid numbers.

This looks like an Under game to me as a result. UNLV wants to run the football, which takes time. San Jose State will throw it around, but the Rebels have 16 interceptions and have held opponents to just 58.3% in the completion department. They also have 30 sacks on the season, which is tied for 14th in the nation.

Pick: Under 61

Other Friday Games

Temple at UTSA (-17, 56): Temple is starting over again, as Stan Drayton was fired. Everett Withers is the interim head coach, a role he seems to get pretty regularly. UTSA has the chance to really put a beating on a Temple team with a bunch of players looking to move on. Jeff Traylor has figured it out offensively with Owen McCown and the Roadrunners, as they’ve scored 175 points in the last four games.

They’re a bad second half away against Tulsa from having won four in a row. They should win running away here.

Pick: UTSA -17

Purdue at Michigan State (-13.5, 47.5): The Boilermakers may have a coaching opening after the season themselves, as they’ve gone 0-7 in Big Ten play and haven’t really been close very often either. It’s a really big number for Michigan State, as Jonathan Smith’s first season has featured more than his fair share of bumps on the road. Don’t play from me on this one.