Isolated tornado, scattered damaging winds forecast for specific area and time in Michigan

UPDATE – 7:35 pm – Severe thunderstorms are weakening quickly. Many counties have been removed from the severe thunderstorm watch. From the radar trend of weakening, the severe weather threat is over for the night. Have a great and safe weekend- Mark Torregrossa

A line of severe thunderstorms is expected to erupt over the southeastern half of Lower Michigan in the second half of this afternoon. We can pinpoint a fairly small part of Michigan that could get into severe thunderstorms capable of producing an isolated tornado, spotty damaging wind gusts or small areas of damaging hail.

The radar forecast from 3 pm to 10 pm has been very consistent and shows us exactly what area of ​​Michigan has to think about severe thunderstorms today. The line of thunderstorms is expected to develop from around the Saginaw/Bay City area southwest to around Lansing between 2 pm and 4 pm The thunderstorms will then intensify up through 7 pm and be at their strongest in the Thumb, Flint area, Ann Arbor and the Detroit area between 4 pm and 9 pm You can use this as a generally accurate picture of what should happen. What you shouldn’t do is look at the specific thunderstorm cells in this forecast and think they will miss your house.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is sticking with almost the same area of ​​severe weather forecasts as their forecasts from yesterday. All of these consistencies point toward high confidence in when and where the strongest storms will occur.

The combined severe weather threat map issued this morning for late afternoon and evening puts Bay City, Midland (on very edge), Saginaw, Flint, Ann Arbor, Detroit and the Thumb in the area with the chance of any form of severe weather.

The main threat will be brief, scattered high wind gusts at the beginning of a thunderstorm. The atmosphere probably has enough energy to make these gusts blow at 60 mph to 70 mph. Remember these severe tastes will only last a few minutes but hit very quickly.

The same area where severe gusts are possible will also have a chance at an isolated tornado or two.

While this is not currently expected to be a prolific large hail producer, that could change if the thunderstorms really build high in the atmosphere. If you are in the severe weather threat area I would park all vehicles you care about in a garage or barn.

It’s a pretty easy severe weather scenario to follow this afternoon and evening. At some point a line of thunderstorms should form somewhere around the Saginaw Bay region and then expand into southeast Lower Michigan.

Be ready to move into a real building before the thunderstorms hit your location. You may have to take cover for one-half of an hour.

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