‘We just can’t afford to live here.’ Housing costs are driving people out of Orange County, poll says

Brittany West had planned to put down roots and build a life with her fiance and their new baby in Orange County, a place that’s lauded as ideal for raising children.

But it’s become more difficult to make ends meet, even though West and her fiance, Ben, both have solid incomes. Modest rent hikes on their Irvine condominium, higher prices for basic goods and costly child care for their 9-month-old son have pushed the couple to start planning to leave Orange County for more affordable digs in the Sacramento area.

It’s a move they’ve long resisted, but they see few other viable options.

“We don’t want to leave. It’s beautiful here. Our friends are here. My fiance’s family is here. We’ve built a community in Orange County,” West, 32, said. “We just can’t afford to live here.”

Read more: Southern California home prices keep rising; up nearly 8% in June to all-time highs

The couple’s story is a familiar one across Southern California, where young people struggle to purchase starter homes and those nearing retirement worry their money won’t go as far as they need.

A UC Irvine poll released Friday indicated that more than a third of Orange County residents are actively considering moving somewhere else. The main reasons? The high costs of housing and basic necessities, including food and gas.

In total, the poll found, more than 50% of respondents are considered “potential leavers,” with women, people under 40, nonwhite residents and those without a college education being more likely to depart than others.

California has been losing residents to other states for more than two decades. In Orange County, though, residents are more frequently relocating within California than moving to places like Texas and Arizona.

“Contrary to what some people like to think, we are not hemorrhaging people to other states because there’s something wrong with California,” said UCI School of Social Ecology Dean Jon Gould, who spearheaded the poll. “What the poll is telling us is there’s a giant storm that’s brewing that may very well unleash itself on the county with the problem of the lack of affordable housing.”

The quality of life, the weather, proximity to family and access to healthcare rank among the top reasons people have chosen to stay in the area — at least for the time being. But the pull of a more affordable life has been strong.

Rental prices in Orange County jumped 22% in 2021 before leveling out a year later and increasing modestly in 2023. Prices have been on the rise again this year, according to data from Apartment List.

In Irvine, the average price for a one-bedroom rental in August is more than $2,500 per month, up just under 1% from last year. In Anaheim, the median rent for a one-bedroom is just under $2,000 and is up 1.8% from 2023.

Read more: Rents are finally falling — but not in Orange County. People are feeling the pain

The two-bedroom condominium that West rents with her bail for about $3,100 a month has felt cramped ever since their son was born. The second bedroom is a combination of a home office for the couple and a nursery.

“He’s 9 months old and starting to crawl,” West said. “We are busting out of this place so fast.”

The couple, who want to have another child at some point, looked at bigger units in their complex and in other Orange County cities, but paying several hundred dollars more a month isn’t feasible for them. Their dream of buying a home in Orange County is getting further and further out of reach, West said.

In the Sacramento area, they’ve found single-family homes with backyards for less than they’re paying now each month.

Among people who have considered leaving Orange County, 78% list the cost of housing as a very important factor. The cost of living was a close second at 76%, ahead of other quality-of-life issues including taxes, crime, traffic, the job market, the political climate and proximity to family outside the region, according to the poll.

Even those who have recently moved to the county say that the cost of housing is a serious problem. Among recent arrivals surveyed, 71% cited the lack of affordable housing as their biggest issue, ahead of traffic, homelessness, local leadership, taxes, overdevelopment and crime.

“We just haven’t built enough housing in Orange County,” said Wallace Walrod, chief economic advisor for the Orange County Business Council. “It’s very difficult to do, and we need to build more housing units at all ends of the spectrum — homeownership opportunities, apartments and rentals at all the various income levels.”

The result is likely to be a continuation of current trends, including declining state aid for local schools due to lowered enrollment, worsening traffic congestion as more workers commute from other regions, and increasing challenges for companies trying to retain employees, Walrod said.

The state has been pushing cities to build more homes, with legislators requiring local governments to allow increased housing development and density. However, the shortage remains acute.

In 2020, the Southern California Assn. of Governments directed Orange County to zone for about 183,000 additional units. Many cities have pushed back, arguing that so many more homes will more rapidly urbanize their suburban communities.

Read more: Amid housing crunch, officials want Orange County to stay the way it is

“Orange County is a place people want to be, and I guess what’s surprising is we have not yet seen across the county the kind of coordinated leadership to address the issues that are potentially driving people away,” Gould said.

Even those who were able to purchase homes decades ago in Orange County are feeling the pinch. This is a particular concern for residents heading into retirement age.

Ronny Shaver, 66, spent most of his life in Orange County, where he took over his dad’s automotive repair shop in Santa Ana. But when he started looking to slow down a bit, he realized his money would go further outside of Orange County.

So Shaver and his wife sold their condominium in Ladera Ranch and moved to a suburb just west of Knoxville, Tenn. Although he misses the community he had in Orange County and the sunny, mild climate, it’s certain that he’ll never move back.

“Now we have a house that’s four times the size on a big lot that’s paid for and money in the bank,” Shaver said. “It’s hard to beat.”

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This story originally appeared in the Los Angeles Times.