Top-eight race narrows as containers hinge on miracles

The NRL’s top-eight battle is at risk of quickly becoming a 10-horse race, with Newcastle’s loss to Penrith leaving them as one of several teams facing a must-win run to the finals.

Long considered one of the closest seasons in recent memory, the mid-table cluster has finally shown signs of breaking with five rounds remaining.

Where a month ago only four points separated fifth to 15th, the gap has now blown out to double that.

Below the break-away pack in the top four, Canterbury and North Queensland are edging closer to being finals bound after wins in round 22.

Manly also picked up points with the bye, while St George Illawarra are back in the top eight after their shock win over Melbourne.

The news is not so good for the Dolphins, dumped out of the eight for the first time since round two after their fifth loss in six games against the Sydney Roosters.

Both they and Canberra face a crucial fortnight ahead, given them each now a win behind the eighth-placed Dragons.

For those below the Dolphins and Raiders, five rounds of must-win football will begin next week.

Gold Coast have shot from nowhere to be the most likely team to make a late-season surge, but must still contend with the Roosters and Penrith on the run home.

Newcastle’s run is somewhat friendlier, with no matches remaining against top-eight teams.

But still, it is likely they will need to win all five of those games after losing their last three on the trot.

“I wouldn’t say we’re relishing the chance (to go on a run and seal finals),” Knights coach Adam O’Brien said.

“You’d rather probably make it a little bit easier but in the past, when their backs are against the wall, these boys fight.

“Their backs were against the wall right from the warm-up today (against Penrith and they fought.”

The Warriors could also have their fate in their own hands with five straight wins, in a month of football against other final contenders.

But 2024’s biggest disappointments in Brisbane and South Sydney are now officially at the dreaded “mathematical chance” stage, with their seasons all but over.

RUN HOME FOR THE NRL FINALS CONTENDERS

1. MELBOURNE (36 points, +157) – South Sydney (away), Penrith (a), Dolphins (home), North Queensland (a), Brisbane (a)

2. PENRITH (34, +162) – Parramatta (a), Melbourne (h), Canberra (a), South Sydney (h) Gold Coast (h)

3. SYDNEY ROOSTERS (30, +219) – bye, Parramatta (h), Gold Coast (a), Canberra (h), South Sydney (a)

4. CRONULLA (30, +131) – Gold Coast (a), Newcastle (h), St George Illawarra (a), Warriors (a), Manly (a)

5. CANTERBURY (28, +92) – St George Illawarra (a), Dolphins (h), Warriors (a), Manly (h), North Queensland (h)

6. NORTH QUEENSLAND (28, +29) – Brisbane (h), Canberra (h), bye, Melbourne (h), Canterbury (a)

7. MANLY (27, +93) – Warriors (h), Canberra (a), Canterbury (a), Wests Tigers (a), Cronulla (h)

8. ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA (26, -90) – Canterbury (h), Gold Coast (h), Cronulla (h), Parramatta (a), Canberra (h)

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9. DOLPHINS (24, +33) – Warriors (h), Canterbury (a), Melbourne (a), Brisbane (h), Newcastle (a)

10. CANBERRA (24, -75) – Manly (h), North Queensland (a), Penrith (h), Sydney Roosters (a), St George Illawarra (a)

11. GOLD COAST (22, -54) – Cronulla (h), St George Illawarra (a), Sydney Roosters (h), Newcastle (a), Penrith (a)

12. NEWCASTLE (22, -105) – Wests Tigers (h), Cronulla (a), South Sydney (a), Gold Coast (h), Dolphins (h)

13. WARRIORS (21, -32) – Dolphins (a), Manly (a), Canterbury (h), Cronulla (a), bye

14. BRISBANE (20, -28) – North Queensland (a), bye, Parramatta (h), Dolphins (a), Melbourne (a)

15. SOUTH SYDNEY (20, -124) – Melbourne (h), Wests Tigers (a), Newcastle (h), Penrith (a), Sydney Roosters (h).